Politico.com cites a Pew Research survey of 21,000 respondents (a very large sampling) citing that Obama has not made any advancements with evangelicals.
"Barack Obama has courted white weekly churchgoers as avidly as any Republican-leaning bloc of voters, though it now appears his efforts may fall flat on Election Day. The Gallup Poll now shows Obama backed by 28 percent of white voters who attend church at least once a week — a group that makes up a roughly a third of all voters — which would be no improvement from the 29 percent of these voters who, according to exit polls, backed Democrats John Kerry and Al Gore in the previous two presidential election. “There has been remarkably little change among whites in the religion gap,” said John Green, of the Pew Forum on Religion and Public Life and a top specialist on the convergence of religion and politics. "
This is of major importance because the Karl Rove strategy could come into play. This core constituency of the Republican party is 25% of the overall voting public. If these evangelicals come in the numbers they did last time, McCain would only need 1.28 of the remaining 3 votes to win the Presidency. I firmly believe these evangelicals will show up in numbers similar to 2004 and 2000. They have been programmed by now and have deep convictions.
Also, another big area of concern for the Obamanites is that the White Catholic vote has determined every election since 1972 as cited by Chris Cillizza:
White Catholic Vote (1972-2004)
2004: George W. Bush 56 percent, John Kerry 43 percent
2000: George W. Bush 52 percent, Al Gore 45 percent
1996: Bill Clinton 48 percent, Bob Dole 41 percent
1992: Bill Clinton 42 percent, George H.W. Bush 37 percent
1988: George H.W. Bush 56 percent, Michael Dukakis 43 percent
1984: Ronald Reagan 57 percent, Walter Mondale 42 percent
1980: Ronald Reagan 52 percent, Jimmy Carter 39 percent
1976: Jimmy Carter 52 percent, Gerald Ford 46 percent
1972: Richard Nixon 57 percent, George McGovern 42 percent
The polls are split who has the white Catholic vote right now. The most accurate poll in 2004, the IBD/TIPP poll, has McCain way ahead on this vote, 51% to 38%. I being a White Catholic can not believe Obama is ahead. No way, no how. The Church has never been more vocal on an election, and the Reagan Democrats have been shifting heavily to McCain.
Again, this election is far from over.