“We are now standing in the face of the greatest historical confrontation humanity has gone through. I do not think that wide circles of the American society or wide circles of the Christian community realize this fully. We are now facing the final confrontation between the Church and the anti-Church, of the Gospel and the anti-Gospel. This confrontation lies within the plans of divine providence. It is a trial which the whole Church… must take up.” Karol Cardinal Wotyla (Sept. 1976)

Saturday, November 1, 2008

McCain/Palin: An Upset in the Making?

Acknowledging a McCain/Palin victory is a very uphill proposition, here are some things that should make the Obama camp tremble in their boots:

1) Zogby cites that for the first time in many weeks, McCain polled higher than Obama (48% to 47% respectively) in yesterday’s daily poll taking independents and blue collar workers:

Pollster John Zogby: "Is McCain making a move? The three-day average holds steady, but McCain outpolled Obama today, 48% to 47%. He is beginning to cut into Obama's lead among independents, is now leading among blue collar voters, has strengthened his lead among investors and among men, and is walloping Obama among NASCAR voters. Joe the Plumber may get his license after all. "Obama's lead among women declined, and it looks like it is occurring because McCain is solidifying the support of conservative women, which is something we saw last time McCain picked up in the polls."

2) Dick Morris stated yesterday on the Michael Medved radio show that McCain has an "excellent" chance to pull an upset. Morris claims large blocks of demographics are still shifting both ways and this election is far from over. He sites the youth vote is now shifting towards McCain in greater numbers while the elderly vote is shifting towards Obama likewise. Morris the other night on Fox News also stated that Obama has been "hemorrhaging votes" these last two weeks.

When most Conservatives are discourage at the gap between Obama and McCain in the polling, Morris, though his experience in running actual campaigns, knows better. He points out Obama is having great difficulty breaking 49% in the national polls as quoted in the Washington Post. He is looking at election day top down:

"It does not matter how wide or narrow the gap is between the two candidates. What matters is how far above or below 49 percent Obama is in the final polls (49 percent assumes that Ralph Nader gets 1 to 2 points as he did in 2004). Right now, Obama is straddling the 49 percent mark; about half the polls put him over it and half under it. If the final polling numbers indicate that Obama is not convincingly north of 49 percent, we are in for a long night."

He also believes that the "Undecided’s" will break heavily to McCain. I agree with this thinking and anticipate McCain will take these votes 2 to 1. With everything as bad as it is right now, if they haven't decided on Obama by now, they won't.

3) Obama also has had a stranglehold on the Hispanic vote to date. That might change in these last few days. As a population that has the iconic of Our Lady of Guadalupe, the patroness of the unborn, as a symbol that marks their ethnic identity , their heritage and core is pro-life. This is not compatible with pulling a lever for Obama.

Retired Bishop Rene H. Gracida sent out an e-mail in Spanish to 2.9 Million Hispanics instructing them to vote pro-life. The letter has been made into a radio commercial and will play in battle ground states over Spanish airways. This is a nightmare for the Obama campaign.

4) Finally, politics is all about reading the nuances. The Obama campaign, and their supporters in the media, are throwing out the idea that if Obama loses this campaign, while being so far ahead, it must be racism. It is not the middle class relating to "Joe the Plumber," it is not Obama’s stupid mistake of saying "spread the wealth", it is not the definition of the middle class that keeps being adjusted down, it is racism. The Obama campaign is hoping by making these remarks public it will make people feel guilty if they vote for McCain. This was mentioned on Fox News this AM as a quote from the Obama operatives, and others like Susan Estrich have been floating this out. This really speaks to the issue of how the Obama camp is feeling the tides turn and the pressure. Playing the race card has serious implications on the voting electorate and is never played from a position of strength.

So take heart this is not over yet.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

The fat lady ain't singing yet.