John McCain: "Show" Don't "Tell"

Starting with a past experience story, as I sometimes do, in college I took a Creative Writing class. The one thing I remember from this course was my instructor pounding into our heads the notion of when you write you are supposed to "show" and never "tell". For example, don’t "tell" that the main character in your writing is impoverished, "show" how she rips single tissues or slices of bread in fours prior to using them because she can’t afford to buy any more and has to make them last.

I thought about this lesson Tuesday night watching the debate. John McCain spent the whole debate telling and not showing.

He mentioned in the town hall forum that you don’t want to have our incompetent government regulating your health care. This did not resonate with the audience because he did not connect with them on an emotionally level. Everyone feels at some point that people deserve health care. He should have used this time to “show” instead of “tell” by saying, “People in places where they have nationalized health care pray they don’t get sick. In America, if a loved one (making it very tangible and personal to the listener) needs urgent, life-saving surgery they can have it within a week if they have employer coverage. With socialized health care, they will deteriorate for 6 to 8 months on some waiting list somewhere for this critical surgery, if they are lucky enough to ever get it.” Both the McCain statement and the story draw the same conclusion, only one will connect with voters with his position.

One of the first questions of the night had a blue-collar worker asking how this bail-out was going help him. McCain rattled off talking points, Obama said that small businesses sometimes are cash-strapped to pay their employees, where they need a short term loan from their local bank. Without this bailout, there are no loans and employees don’t get paid. Everyone has a fear of not getting paid and the devastating consequences that would bring. This is very tangible to people and an underlying fear. Obama made the connection.

I think what McCain has to do is starting “showing” instead of “telling." He needs connections with the voters, because right now it is not happening.

Here is the story I would "show":

Picture you and your love ones barely surviving on the side of a mountain as nighttime descends. The temperature is plummeting and the only thing you have to keep you warm and alive is a small, flicker fire that is struggling to stay lit. Someone comes from behind you and, not understanding the situation, throws a fire blanket over your live-protecting fire completely extinguishing it. This is what Obama’s tax increases will do to our struggling economy. You will be left on the side of that freezing mountain without a way to survive. As you thought you were in a bad situation that couldn't get worse before the fire was put out, you will then find yourself in a much more severe situation without experienced leadership that knows what it is doing.

Unlocking the Codes of the 2008 Elections

Clotaire Rapaille, a French psychologist turn corporate marketer, deeply believes there is an underlying, subconscious “code” on everything we come into contact with. Based on this, he comes up with marketing strategies for blue-chip companies that unlock these codes with consumers and increase their probability to purchase the company's products thus increasing their sales.

For instance, he delineates the different, subconscious codes that Americans and the French have in regard to cheese. For Americans, cheese is dead; put it in the refrigerator – don’t let it spoil! For the French the cheese is alive. Buy it as needed, purchasing it according to the cheese's life-expectency clock in their heads. He states:

"The French like the taste before safety. Americans want safety before the taste."

It is an interesting concept. His PBS interview is definitely worth a read for anyone ever wanting to market a product.

Now, I am not sure I agree with everything Rapaille says, and I think he has created for himself a pretty good shtick, the “French psychologists; super, premier code unlocker,” through which he charges a hefty premium. Being a marketing person myself, I tend to go for a more tangible reality when positioning and marketing a product. From my perspective, it is, "What is true the essence of the product?" So with this background piece, here is what I believe as the true essence, or subconscious codes, of the national candidates for the 2008 election. I believe if you get to their true essences, you will be able to get to a better view of who is going to win the election.

John McCain: His subconscious code is “Prison-of-War”. Everyone knows his story. People have this dark curiosity about this chapter of his life and don't know what the specific details are. When people call him "a patriot" or "honorable", they are not refering to McCain the Senator, they are really referring to his POW story.

Sara Palin: Her subconscious code, I believe, is “Mother” There are many politicians in the media today, very few that can tear down a convention with a speech and then moments later hug her 4-month-old on national television. She is so much a "Mother" that she started her activist career in the PTA, again underscoring her as a mother. The intense hatred towards her is probably based on this underlying code. Stay at home mom’s aren’t knowledgeable, bringing a Down Syndrome baby to term is not practical, a mother who is sending her son off to Iraq to a wrong war, etc... “Mother” is definitely the code.

Barack Obama: His subconscious code is “Dynamic”. He represents change, which is the definition of dynamic. He represents the Democrats wanting to change the control of Bush government, as he personally represents a change to the genetic make up of the Presidency. "I don't look like the guys on the currency." The code, “Dynamic” also subconsciously underscores his personality and oratory skills. I believe this is his term.

Joe Biden: He was the most difficult for me to define. I finally settled with the code: “Scrapper.” It speaks to his style of enjoying a fight. It speaks to the challenges in his life that he had to overcome, including the death of family members. It speaks of his Scranton upbringing. It speaks of his appearance; rolled up sleeves, displaced hair, sloping eyes. When people mention blue-collar with Biden, they are really speaking to his roots not his present day tendencies, and how he climbed his way to success.

So there are my codes. The 2008 Presidential Election will feature Prisoner-of-War/Mother verses Dynamic/Scrapper. I believe the Republicans have the better subconscious code ticket. Time will tell.

The Palin Bounce

The two most recent polls have confirmed that Senator John McCain is now ahead of Barack Obama, from anywhere from 3 to 10 points. Please remember most of these polls had Obama ahead seven points two weeks ago before the Palin announcement.

Somewhere, deep in the bowls of the Obama camp, a strategist has his forehead in his palms saying, "What are we going to do about this Palin problem?"

How Close is the 2008 Presidental Race?

Real Clear Politics has an electoral map of where the 2008 Presidental election is right now, today, with all the most recent polls incorporated.

Obama has 273 electoral votes, McCain has 265. There is a 4 electoral vote swing to make this an absolute deadlock. That is how close this race is!

I Will Stump, But No Questions Please...

A couple of thoughts on the Presidential race:

Two weeks ago, I concluded that this year's Presidential race was sizing up to be a flawed candidate verses a flawed campaign.

The flawed candidate was Barack Obama. His meteoric rise and the accompanying excitement that surrounded this young, charismatic politician was flawed as well. At the same moment this excitement was being unleashed, it was being met with an underlying realization that we would have to trust someone we knew very little about with handling our nation's most important Office. This excitement was also tempered due to the uneasiness and fear that his lack of inexperience brought. The charisma from his ear-to-ear smile faded as the American people, one by one, discovered his extremist views as a legislator. Even the Democrats within his own party, one by one, experienced his political double-speak. As Obama told a pro-life crowd at Saddleback Church that determining life's beginning was "above [his] pay grade," he also told pro-choice people he had no principled view so his position could change on them as well.

The flawed campaign in my conclusion was John McCain’s. It was a dormant campaign that let his rival stir up excitement exclusively, and a sizable war chest, while putting up no fight. This was inexcusable. It was a campaign that fled from the party's social conservative base; which delivered George W. Bush the Presidency twice. This was ineptness. The campaign not only ignored the P.R. game, it allowed Obama to define the race. Obama was a young vibrant man surfing in the Hawaiian surf; McCain was a senior citizen with dermatologist appointments on his calendar to get melanomas removed from his face when he wasn’t covering up from the sunlight wearing blue-blocker sunglasses.

So what happened this week?

McCain’s campaign became less flawed:

McCain forcefully served up everything that the social conservatives wanted to hear in the Saddleback debate and started attacking Obama's weaknesses. In short, he started running a campaign. The Zogby poll reported McCain overtook Obama by five points within the past week.

Then, the flawed candidate became more flawed:

Obama spent most of this debate surgically choosing his words like he was the accused at a legal deposition giving the appearance that he is covering something up. I personally noticed that his eyes for the majority of the time as he spoke where looking down and to the right, similar to what a used car salesman does before he asks you to sign on the dotted line.

With this understanding, I had a new belief this week that explained the voter swing very succinctly.

Barack Obama is a great auditor who can excite crowds of tens of thousands of people with a speech, but can’t handle an intimate debate. He becomes a distinguished, evening anchorman with pre-written cue cards, but an arrogant, slithering trial lawyer that you would not want at your barbecue when he has to think on his feet and when he is not in absolute control of the situation. He is a manufactured candidate.

To prove this, I will stay within the Democratic Party. The momentum for their primaries abruptly changed, almost mortally for Obama, starting at the New Hampshire primary debate. Obama achieved the unbelievable feet of making the human Ice Queen, Hillary Clinton, look warm and approachable. His response to the moderator’s question, “Why don’t people like you, Hillary?” was as canned as it was pre-written. He said, “You’re likable enough, Hillary...” The consonant politician. He gave a response that would sound positive to Clinton’s supporters, but leave out an absolute confirmation, using the term “enough”, which still left Hillary’s likability needing. Note: He made this cocky statement while looking down, again.

After this disturbing round of intimacies/debates with Obama, the Democrats started to flee to Clinton. Clinton started winning primaries, and fell just short in primaries and time to win the nomination. If this debate happened a month sooner, it is my opinion the Democrats would have a different nominee.

A comment that was unleashed to the media during this Clinton resurgence was that Obama was having a tough time in “closing the deal.” I have a feeling that this came from James Carville, a top Clinton’s adviser - - it sounds like him, and underscores all the points I have made. The more you are exposed to Obama candidly, the more you are likely to vote for someone else, consequently the more difficulty he has with a prolonged campaign.

There are many more Presidential debates to go. Many more times for the American people to have intimacy with Barack Obama and see him in an uncontrolled environment. These debates won’t serve Obama well. He does not have any electoral votes under his belt to serve as his safety net as he did in the Democratic primaries. The debates will serve McCain well who has more than enough time to let Obama expose himself some more. Going forward, McCain will just have to count his houses correctly before the debates.

Let's Play Spot the Professional Politician...

...with the Q & A at Saddleback Church over the weekend:

RICK WARREN: "NOW, LET'S DEAL WITH ABORTION. 40 MILLION ABORTIONS SINCE ROE V. WADE. YOU KNOW, AS A PASTOR I HAVE TO DEAL WITH THIS ALL OF THE TIME. ALL OF THE PAIN AND ALL OF THE CONFLICTS. I KNOW THIS IS A VERY COMPLEX ISSUE. 40 MILLION ABORTIONS. AT WHAT POINT DOES A BABY GET HUMAN RIGHTS IN YOUR VIEW?"

BARACK OBAMA: "WELL, I THINK THAT WHETHER YOU ARE LOOKING AT IT FROM A THEOLOGICAL PERSPECTIVE OR A SCIENTIFIC PERSPECTIVE, ANSWERING THAT QUESTION WITH SPECIFICITY, YOU KNOW, IS ABOVE MY PAY GRADE."

JOHN MCCAIN: "AT THE MOMENT OF CONCEPTION."

No Experience; No Obama

Political Guru Karl Rove was on Fox News yesterday and he brought up a very telling public opinion poll on Barack Obama.

Rove said:

"One [Obama problem] is the doubts about Obama's experience and fitness for the job. In March, I believe it was, ABC-Washington Post poll said 46 percent of the American people believe that he lacked the experience to be president.

He then spent $119 million between March and the end of June on his campaign, including a lot of advertising in key states, and at the end of June, Washington Post-ABC asked the same question again and the dial hadn't changed. Forty-six percent said that he lacked the experience and qualification to be president.

You normally find both [Parties] candidates somewhere in the 60 percent to percent range on that question. Here's a guy who can't even bump 50 percent."

This undercurrent of concern is something McCain should seize and run with. Sadly, he won't.

Hillary Clinton was smart enough to seize this, with her "Who do you want answering the phone at the White House at 3AM?" Clinton got a strong bump after this commercial, but could never go for the jugular without upsetting her party base.

Zogby confirms that when this same 3AM question is asked between McCain and Obama, McCain wins by an almost 20 point margin. There is teeth to this issue.

I can see a commercial showing a 55-year-old brain surgeon with white hair on his temples discussing how sensitive and life threatening your surgery will be, but then have him replaced by a gum-chewing intern saying he was voted in to do this surgery by people who think he has enough experience to do the job. It would leave voters very unsettled.

Lip Service...Not Even.

The Associated Press reported that John McCain stopped at the Basilica in Mexico City and paid a visit to the holy image of Our Lady of Guadalupe:

"McCain began the day at Mexico City's famed Basilica de Guadalupe, where he laid a wreath of white roses at the altar and stood atop the Papal balcony.

He was accompanied by President Bush's brother, former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, who was visiting Mexico on a business trip.

McCain's visit to the Basilica had clear political overtones as Catholic and Hispanic voters are expected to be key swing voters in the November election."

Now I ask all my pro-life friends out there, is there ever any better opportunity in the world for candidate to say something remotely pro-life than a visit to the Patron of the Unborn, Our Lady of Guadalupe?

We got nothing, zippo, other than a few pictures and a political strategist who crossed "Appeal to Catholic and Hispanic swing voters," off his list.

I have always been able to see clear contradictions in my life, at sometimes being tortured by them.Yesterday, we had John McCain who can't run away from the pro-life issue fast enough appearing in the presence of the Divine portrait of the Mother of God, depicted carrying our Savior in utero, who eternally and without cease focuses us on the sanctity of life.

Very Non-direct Mail

Today, an awareness came over me on just how in trouble the McCain for President campaign is. I received a campaign-fundraising letter in the mail. Well I didn’t receive it, it was addressed to me at my parents’ address - - a residence where I have not lived for 13 years. That was the first troubling sign. They have been paying for outdated mailing lists.

The second concern was how bad the target marketing of the piece was. It was a plethora of very safe, middle-of-the-road issues, stretched all over the map with no common theme; aiming for everything and hitting nothing. There was absolutely no thought nor focus behind this undertaking, just throwing enough of "it" up on the wall and hope something sticks and some possible donations are sent. I am unsure if this was a result of inexperience or laziness.

I have worked as product managers for direct mail companies (plural). I also surmise they got my name from previous donations to political candidates. My donation history is clearly and percisely supporting candidates that are adamantly and vocally pro-life and social conservative. Names like Alan Keyes, Sam Brownback and others. I should have been easily identifiable as to what kind of voter I am.

What is the one topic this mailing did not mention? You got it, the pro-life issue. If they started the letter, "There are three Supreme Court justices that will be replaced in the next four years, and we need your help," I would have considered this request. This sloppy, direct mail effort now makes me more upset that my primary cause is being shunned, most-likely never leading to a donation being sent.

McCain should have had one letter to the social conservatives (pro-life, defending God in the schools, against gay marriage, etc.), one letter to the fiscal conservatives (preventing a 25% tax rate and keeping tax cuts), one to moderates (mentioning gas prices, immigration, economy), etc… That is a campaign that knows what it is doing, and a campaign that will be successful.
As I said, it was a sad realization.

Today, McCain shook up his campaign by replacing Rick Davis with Steve Schmidt handling all day to day operations. I hope for all of our sake this move shows a better return.

The VEEP Sweepstakes

In the next few weeks, John McCain and Barack Obama will both announce their selections to round off their presidential tickets as they enter their conventions.

There is a lot of media pundits guessing as to who will be selected. A few weeks ago, I heard WABC radio report that McCain's choice was definitely Huckabee, today the pundits are announcing Mitt Romney is the top choice.

There is no way of telling whom they will select. The history of VP selections have paired people on a ticket that disliked each other so much you wouldn't have normaly found them in the same room. There was no love lost between JFK and LBJ. Kennedy selected him as a politically shrewed move to help him carry the south. Ronald Reagan and George HW Bush intensely disliked each other when Reagan asked him to be his VP. Over the years, they became friends.

The last few elections have been so "hanging-chad" close, I believe both of the VP selections will be heavily influenced by looking at the electoral map.

A great political Web site, Real Clear Politics, has an updated Electoral Vote Map for the 2008 Election. In looking at it, some states, and their VP candidates, become very important very quickly.

The two biggest prizes in play right now could yield the Vice President choices.

McCain, surprisingly, does not even have Florida leaning towards him. It is in play. Republican Presidential candidates usually carry Florida and Texas, Democratic ones carry New York and California. If just one of these states flip to the other party, the election is over. McCain needs Florida to have a chance. His selection should be Governor Charlie Crist from Florida. He is popular and will carry the state for McCain. He is also noted as a great fundraiser and McCain is trailing Obama in war chests. He recently flip-flopped on offshore drilling in FLA, which some saw as trying to align himseld with McCain - - a bid to be named VP.

Obama should pick Ohio's Govenor Ted Strickland. Ohio's 20 EV are in play, and if Obama gets them he would then be at 258 total EV's, a hiccup from the Presidency. Also, no Republican candidate has ever won the Presidency without carrying Ohio. By every historic standard, carrying Ohio would cement the Presidency for Obama . Strickland is a former preacher that will position Obama better with the faith-based voters he desperately needs, and has been courting recently.

Politics makes strange bedfellows. When looking at electoral votes, the bedfellows become less strange.

The Numbers McCain Can't Solve

In observing John McCain distancing himself from evangelicals and social conservatives, I greatly worry. Karl Rove, the "architect" of the two George W. Bush presidential victories, knew much better.

In 2004, President Bush carried 78% of the evangelical vote based on appealing to, and aligning himself with, evangelical values. It is believed that 1 out of every 4 adults in America are evangelicals. The master strategy of Rove was if he could motivate this concentration all to vote, President Bush in theory needed only 1.23 (based on the result of 78%) people out of the remaining 3 people in America to vote for him to have a majority and the Presidency. So this translated into just over 1/3 of the remaining adults in America.

Now this 1/3 requirement is an accurate number if the rest of the American adults turned out to vote in similar patterns to the evangelicals. But we must consider, the evangelicals are the ones digging their cars out of January snow banks at 4AM in the morning to collect signatures for their candidates in Iowa. They are very motivated politically, and fiercely-reliable voters, while the majority of the other 3 out of 4 American adults are mostly moderate, at best, in their political activity.

So with this consideration, in my estimation, Bush would have then had only needed about 25-30% of the remaining adult voters to gain the Presidency. This is what Karl Rove knew, but sadly John McCain might figure out come post-November.

McCain is trading voters whom would come through a blizzard to vote if they believed in you, for hopefully an equal population of the center (by not stressing social conservative values) whom might not make it to a voting booth on Super Tuesday because of cable programming.

USA Today reports that Barack Obama is going hard after evangelicals, his campaign is smart enough to figure out this formula, and he is up to 25% support among them. John McCain is only at 57% of these voters that should have been his for the taking. With this 57%, McCain will now need close to half of the remaining 3 of out 4 voters to gain the Presidency.

McCain is thinking evangelicals have no other option to vote for. 43% of them right now are not in total agreement with McCain's arrogance. My fear is that these voters don't see McCain as someone who will support their faith, do not realize there are Supreme Court nominations hanging in the balance, and they will leave their "shovels in the garage".