The Coming Republican Tsunami

Here are two very interesting pieces that should not be overlooked:

Gallup just released a likely voter poll that found if turnout on this Election Day is as expected, The Republicans would lead the Democrats by a 46% to 42% margin.

After this, it gets interesting. This likely voters poll also projects that if the turn out is much heavier than expected, the Republican voters will then lead the Democrats 53% to 40%, a 13 point lead and what would represent a severe whomping.

It even gets better. If the turnout is lower than expected, say extremely bad weather from Washington to Boston on election day, or the Democrats are too embarrassed to show their faces, aren't motivated to vote and just stay home, Republican voters would lead the Democratic voters by 56% to 38%. An incredible 18 point lead!

Too put this in perspective, Ronald Reagan had an 18 point difference when he carried 49 states in 1984.

John Fund quotes Michael Barone in the Wall St. Journal stating if these second scenarios happen, we will be looking at possibly picking up 100, one-zero-zero, House seats in Congress, and the Democratic devastation would be on par with the 1928 elections, even exceeding the 1994 Gringrich landslide when 54 House seats changed hands.

Now here is the second piece of data that I took notice of recently that when laid along side of the above data is very pertinent.

During September's election primaries, American University confirms that we had more Republicans turn out than Democrats for the first time since the 1930's. This has not been achieved in close to 80 years! In addition, Republican turn out was up +28% over 2006. Democratic turn out for this year's primaries was down -5% compared to 2006. This foreshadows that the Republican turn out will be heavier than expected and their base is very energized.

The Tsunami is coming... Boy is it coming!